2024 Election Update

On By Corey Weeks, Manager, Government Relations

Presidential Election

The contentious race for the White House between Vice President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump is within the margin of error as we enter the final 20 days until Election Day. National polls have remained tight since President Biden’s departure from the race in July, while polling in the swing states shows an equally close race. The key states to watch on election night that will decide the next president are:

  1. Arizona
  2. Georgia
  3. Nevada
  4. North Carolina
  5. Michigan
  6. Pennsylvania
  7. Wisconsin

Donald Trump is joined on the Republican ticket by Sen. JD Vance of Ohio, while Minnesota Governor Tim Walz serves as Kamala Harris’ VP selection.

Senate

Republicans will have a favorable map to flip the Senate in November, with seats currently held by Democrats in West Virginia, Montana, Ohio, and Arizona all up for grabs. Democrats currently hold a 51-49 majority in the Senate with the help of four independents who caucus with Senate Democrats.

Two of those independents, Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona and Joe Manchin of West Virginia will be retiring from the Senate, opening up two winnable seats for Republicans. In Arizona, Democratic congressman Rueben Gallego is up against Republican nominee Kari Lake, who previously ran for governor in 2022. The race in West Virginia features its Republican governor, Jim Justice, and Democratic nominee Glenn Elliott, the former mayor of Wheeling, WV. Governor Justice is heavily favored in the race.

The races in Montana and Ohio pose tough bids for re-election for the Democratic incumbents. Jon Tester, who has served Montana in the Senate since 2007, faces an uphill race against Republican challenger Tim Sheehy, a former US Navy Seal. In Ohio, Democrat Sherrod Brown is running against businessman Bernie Moreno, the Republican nominee.

Other Senate races to watch include Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada. In Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Wisconsin, Democratic incumbents Bob Casey, Jacky Rosen, and Tammy Baldwin will attempt to fend off their Republican challengers. Meanwhile in Michigan, the retirement of Democratic Senator Debbie Stabenow gives Republicans the opportunity to flip a seat in the tightly contested swing state. Democratic congresswoman Elissa Slotkin and former Republican congressman Mike Rogers are locked in a toss-up race to be Michigan’s new senator.

House

The race for the US House is far less certain. The slim Republican majority, which currently sits at 220-212 with three vacancies, will be threatened as Democrats target winnable Republican held seats in districts that voted for President Biden in 2020. These seats, many of which come from reliably blue states like California and New York, will be crucial in deciding who controls the majority in the 119th Congress.

Generic congressional ballot polling shows a toss-up race for the House majority.